June, 2010

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Shorter term Longer term

Sunday, June 27th, 2010

Please read our disclosure.

Based on the technical statistics that I receive from Lowry everyday it would appear that  the recent rally from the June 8th lows was a result of a lack of supply rather than from aggressive buying, and therefore another test of the May 25th, June 8th low seems likely. On the other hand, and more important, the longer term indicators (based over the past fifty days) are inconsistent with a market that is entering a new bear phase. I am looking for another test and then a resumption of the cyclical bull market that started in March of ‘09.

The tactical moves of increasing our hedges and adding to our gold positions have buffered the latest downdraft rather nicely. I look forward to reducing our hedge positions when I am convinced that a new intermediate leg up is in place.

A bad day, but…

Saturday, June 5th, 2010

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The initial headline of over 400,000 jobs being created appeared to be a positive for the market until it was learned that most of those jobs were temporary census workers; that news coupled with a new debt crisis emanating from Hungary, sent the futures spiraling downward. The S&P 500 closed down ~3.5% and while it was a bad day for us as well, our hedges were a big help in limiting our losses to < 1%. As stated before, I still believe this is a short term correction (defined by a drop of less than twenty percent), but we’ll have to wait until Monday to see if we can turn this thing around. Here’s  hoping.