At least I got the volatility right, but what about the upward bias. As mentioned in many blogs since the April 23rd peak in the market, I suggested that there was strong evidence pointing to a more than nominal correction in the market. It is down twelve percent from its peak, and I believe we are near a correction bottom. The evidence still supports a correction rather than a top in an ongoing bull market, and the recent downward volatility does nothing to dispel that theory. With the market at extreme oversold levels, I look for a weak opening this morning with some kind of reversal this afternoon. If I’m wrong about correction versus top, I’ve rolled our June puts into September with a strike price about ten percent below the market. Stay tuned.
